Gearing Up for a Sit Down

Two-and-a-half weeks after a two-and-a-half week government shutdown - the first government shutdown since the 1990s - everything is just about back to normal on Capitol Hill.  Normalcy these days, of course, means that not a great deal is getting done legislatively.  But at least federal workers around the country are receiving their paychecks on time as party leaders in both chambers work in conference to negotiate an actual budget for Fiscal Year 2014.

The Eleventh Hour Agreement that ended the October shutdown created a number of important dates on legislators' calendars:  temporary debt limit cushion will expire on February 7; appropriations for fiscal 2014, funded at current sequester levels, is set to expire January 15; the conferees - 22 Senators and 8 House Members - who are tasked with agreeing to a budget resolution by December 15, are scheduled to convene next on November 13.

The impetus for the last shutdown, to the extent that it can be determined and easily summarized, was the fundamental disagreement between Democrats and Republicans as to whether Obamacare was such a destructive government intrusion on the American people that they would be better off with the government simply not functioning at all.  After an Obamacare rollout that could charitably be described as "bumpy," the jury is still out with respect to the law and its current warts.

With Obamacare already wreaking havoc on unwitting patriots across America or helping to insure the tired, poor, huddled masses yearning to breathe free (depending on whom you ask), the next showdown will not be waged over efforts to delay the law.  Instead, the issues likely to keep lawmakers at work on nights and weekends this winter will be more traditional partisan budget battles: cutting spending versus increasing revenues, entitlement reform versus eliminating corporate tax loopholes, Fox versus MSNBC.

Come January, the stakes of failing to reach an agreement will be the same as they were in September, but for this round of possible brinksmanship, the Holy Grail of defunding or defending Obamacare is no longer on the table.  Furthermore, Standard and Poor's estimated that the October shutdown cost roughly $24 billion in the midst of an argument over how best to stabilize and grow an already fragile economy.  These facts, along with the pound of political flesh that each side was forced to pay to end the last shutdown, are reason for tempered optimism that this budget debate will at least be about the budget.

Then again, as Congress continues to boldly explore new frontiers of partisan rancor and gridlock, the only guarantee in this likely confrontation, no matter which side you fall on, is that any failure to reach an accord will be the other side's fault.

Getting Along to Get Along

After months of discord over a Fiscal Year 2014 budget, the merits of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. Obamacare), and whether the U.S.'s self-imposed statutory borrowing limit should be raised in the face of the possibility of the first debt default in the nation's history, Congress was able to come to yet another Eleventh Hour Agreement that will keep the country running. . . 

As the end of Fiscal Year 2013 approached and Congress scrambled to reach a short-term spending bill to buy more time to negotiate a budget that could, for some reason, not be negotiated during the preceding six months, a group of House Members moved the goalposts.  No longer was the focus of the debate on the vastly disparate top level spending figures crafted by the respective Budget Committees of the House and Senate, but intend it was on whether it was worth funding the government at all if Obamacare remained the law of the land.  With Congress at an impasse and neither side showing any signs of backing down, Democrats and Republicans engaged in a 16-day staring contest, during which hundreds of thousand of federal workers were furloughed and a staggering number of vital public services were put on hold.

Finally, on the eve of what the Treasury Department predicted would be the last day that the Federal Government would be able to pay its bills, the contestants blinked.  After immeasurable handwringing and near-agreements, leaders of both parties in the Senate were able to broker a deal that the Speaker was willing to bring to the House floor for a vote.  After passing in the Senate overwhelmingly, the multifaceted resolution was sent to the House.  Although the risk of staining the full faith and credit of the United States was not enough to inspire unanimous approval, the bill eventually passed the House with broad bipartisan support and the President promptly signed it into law.

Included in the not-so-grand bargain: the government will be funded through January 15 at the House-proposed spending figure, the debt limit will be raised until February 7, members of the House and Senate will meet in conference to attempt to finally agree on a budget (with a December 13 deadline for agreement), and Kentucky will get a new dam.

Crises averted.  For now.  See you again in January.  And February.

Can't We All Just Get Along?

Congress enters the first weekend of the government shutdown with no clear end in sight and the statutory limit on the federal debt nearing breach.  Rumors of a grand bargain and internal talks between the Speaker and House Republicans have yet to yield any tangible plan.  In the House, Members have been asked to vote on piecemeal openings of "favored" programs--in fact, necessary programs that meet the needs of low-income families and children.  Every one of the, a party line vote.

There are good, rational ideas on both sides of the aisle and on both sides of the Dome.  But the conversation so far has been anything but substantive.  The weekend should not be considered a respite.  Federal employees who would be on the job this weekend will likely not be.  The Capitol police who sprang to Congress and the Public's defense in Thursday's tragic events were not getting paid for their work.  American taxpayers are not only starting to feel the pinch, but are legitimately starting to worry about the safety of our water, our food, our highways, our airways, and our children.  And what of those Americans who have, for so many reasons, counted on the government to help between starvation and hunger, and even between life and death?  We're talking about babies, seniors, and everyone in between.

Vice President Humphrey put it, "It was once said that the moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; and those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped."

It is time that our lawmakers see the light.

The day dawned, October 1, 2013, the first day of fiscal year 2014, and the Federal Government is shut down. An (under-)estimated 800,000 Federal employees have been told to stay home.  No job.  No pay.  And the expectation that if and when the dispute is resolved, lost pay will not be restored.  But, presumably, the work will get done.

 

And where will this end?  On Capitol Hill, most staff have been deemed "essential" for fear of press reports that our elected representatives may have employed "nonessential" staff at taxpayer expense. The House and Senate are no closer to agreement to defund, delay, or suspend Obamacare as the cost of enacting a sequester-level Continuing Resolution to keep the Federal Government running temporarily until November 15, December 15, sooner, later?  

 

The last chess play was the House attempt to "request a conference" on the CR -- to which Senate Majority Leader Reid responded "not with a gun to our head," while reminding lawmakers that for 6 months the House has refused to sit down at a conference on the competing House and Senate Budget Resolutions passed 6 months ago.

 

And prior to that: House Republicans proposed denying Members, their staff, and executive branch political employees an employer contribution for their employer-sponsored health insurance (a benefit in place since the 1960's).  The Senate rejected that proposal. too.  

 

A precursor to a mid-October expiration of the Federal Debt Limit?  At what cost?  Yesterday, in anticipation of the potential government shutdown, the stock market was down modestly (100-150 points).  "So, what will motivate folks to resolve this?" one Member asked us yesterday.  "A market drop of 2,000+ over a day or two?" we predicted.

 

Time will tell.  Long past the time we no longer have.

 

Let us hope that this shutdown does not cost lives or real harm.  Certainly, more than inconvenient now, particularly for Federal employees and their families.  But what of the people they serve? Where will the pain be felt first for this unfortunate game of budget chicken.

 

Maybe, at least, traffic will be a bit lighter.

 

Happy New Year (FY 2014)